Cattle Cycle

<a href="http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/1202425683667.xml">Weather, ethanol short-circuit the normal cattle cycle</a><br />n<br />n<blockquote>If the cattle cycle isn't dead, it's at least on life support. That's what market experts told ranchers today at the annual Cattle Fax Outlook Seminar at the Cattle Industry Convention in Reno, Nevada. Cattle Fax is a producer-owned beef industry market analysis organization.<br />n<br />nTwo years ago, most market experts thought the cattle business was headed into a multi-year expansion cycle, after several years of good prices and profits. But that expansion was blindsided primarily by two things, according to today's reports: weather, and ethanol.<br />n<br />nThe weather issue has been prolonged drought in key cow/calf areas. First it was the southern Plains, and now its the southeastern states, where 25% of the nation's beef cow herd is located.</blockquote><br />n<br />nTimes are looking tough. It's kind of funny. Usually you see the cow herd drop and you are excited about higher prices. this time that is not true. As cow-calf producers it is going to be tight because of high feed costs. Keep an eye on the overhead and we should be all right. Spend money like mad people and we will be in trouble.<br />n<br />nI think I will keep my wallet as closed as I can stand it. Try to sweat this one out. We will see.<br />n<br />n<strong>Enjoy your sweat because hard work doesn't guarantee success, but without it you don't have a chance. Alex Rodriguez</strong>