What’s 2008 Look Like

Here are some predictions of what 2008 will look like for cattle producers.<br />n<br />n<a href="http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=187023">In The Cattle Markets: Top Ten List For 2008</a><br />n<br />n<blockquote>10. Slow growth in beef cow herd.<br />n9. Adaption to <acronym title="Country of Origin Labeling">COOL</acronym>.<br />n8. Trade Growth.<br />n7. Debate on Packer Ownership Bans. <br />n6. Growing Pork Production.<br />n5. High cattle prices.<br />n4. Profits. <br />n3. Distillers Grains.<br />n2. Cattle Feeding Shifting to Northern Plains. <br />n1. Feed Price Volatility.</blockquote><br />n<br />nThere is a really good explanation to each of these items in the article if you really wish to delve into them. My Opinion on the list? <br />n<br />nI would have to start with saying i would put #10 quite a bit higher. The total beef cow herd affects the industry whatever sector you are in and the little to no growth going on in the cow herd is a pretty big thing to all. Number 6 about pork is interesting. I don't follow pork production that well but it is a major competitor for the protein dollar against beef so what is going on there is very important. I was under the impression, mistaken obviously, that the rise in corn prices was going to hurt the pork producers more than the beef producers since for some reason the distillers grain doesn't feed well to pigs. Have to keep an eye on this one.<br />n<br />nI find #4 interesting. The way they explain it, the small profits or lack of profits, btw that's called a loss, are going to be a continuing issue for the industry. No shit Sherlock. Not very often do you break even in any business. You either make money or lose money. In my opinion the cow-calf producer, my concern, is going to be on the edge. If they hit the market right, they should post a slight profit, hit the market wrong and they will take a bath. We will see.<br />n<br />nThe only other thing I see missing from this list is the Beef Checkoff. There are enough groups out there agitating for change in the Checkoff that I think there is going to be a hell of a fight about it shaping up. Whether we will see something change on it this year or next year will be the question. The wheels of government move pretty slow so I don't know that this year will be any change.<br />n<br />nInteresting list for cattle producers to ponder. Here's top hoping we all make a profit in 2008 and confound all the experts.<br />n<br />n<strong>Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Niels Bohr</strong>